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December 12, 2006

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Mike Cassidy

I attended the Ottawa meeting of CA last night (Jan. 16). Very well attended, more than 200 there. The scheduled presentations lasted until 9.55, the 10 p.m. shut off was extended to 10.30 to allow about a dozen interventions from the audience (including me).

The evening was well run and polite. Audience (more than 200 so some had to sit on the floor) were generous in applauding many of the presentations. Little support for FPTP, moderate support for a mixed system using list seats for the parties to offset the distortion of single member elections in constituencies and produce a proportional result. Numbers of presenters spoke of expanding the Legislature to make this possible rather than expanding the number of single member seats.

As a veteran of Royal Commission hearings I felt there was a need for more specific proposals than were prsented last night. Some of the proposals that came forward were quite radical if not eccentric. For the most part, presenters sketched the main lines then suggested that the detailled mechanics would best be left to the Assembly and its staff to work out.

Some specific notes: John Trent, a political scientist and member of Fair Vote Canada, spoke to what he called misconceptions re PR. Would PR lead to multiplcation of parties and unstable governments with more frequent elections? The evidence does not support this. He noted that this was also finding of the report on electoral reform by the Law Commission of Canada. Also, noted that PR facilitates legislative politics that are less polarized, more collaborative, allow more long term planning.

He noted criticism of the sometimes lengthy periods required to form a government under PR - recent German election being a particular case. While it took a couple of months for the Socialists and Christian Democrats to work things out, he noted that the result was a hefty policy manual that the partner parties had agreed to implement, and a balanced sharing of offices between the major partner parties. Is this worse than the prospect of back and forth changes we may see in Ottawa under the present circumstance (most recent poll shows the Libs now 4 points up over Conservative, enough to take over under Dion with, guess what, another minority government and all that entails.

One other interesting proposal that I had not encountered before - use of what Chris Bradshaw called 'approval voting'. In single member constituencies, voters could select their first choice as now, but could also mark their ballot with an 'A' for any other candidates they could live with. To be elected, a candidate would have to have the largest vote plus a count of As for approval in excess of 50% of the number of voters who cast votes. I wasn't quite clear what would happen if the top candidates didn't have enough A votes to reflect majority support/tolerance.

There was little interest expressed in the use of multi-member constituencies as a means of implementing PR. I had published research 15 years ago through the Parliamentary Centre in Ottawa on an alternative electoral system, and concluded that the most effective, workable and simple alternative to FPTP was to use constituencies with about 5 seats apiece. Seats would be distributed between the parties based on the share of votes registered, the party candidates would be put forward on lists and voters would select one list to support.

The result in Ottawa would often be a split like 2 PC, 2 Liberal and 1 NDP based on recent elections. My research (on Canadian elections) showed that this moderate PR system wd have a variance of about 2 to 3% from absolutely pure translation of votes to seats that would be achieved by a Netherlands or Israeli system of one electoral list for the whole country. The variance using a mixed system (constituency seats balanced by party lists to be proportional) would be arouond 6% if 20% of the seats were from the party lists, better if the compensatory seats were 35% or 50% of the total. This compares with 12% to 15% on average for the FPTP system, rising as high as 24% variance for the present Ontario Legistlature and 25% for the first Multoney government (75% of the seats with 50% of the vote).

I was surprised last night that a number of those advocating a mixed system proposed that 50% of the seats should come from party lists and only 50% from individual constituencies. My research was quite clear that you could get good results with only 1/5 of the seats coming from the compensatory list.

I intend to review the Internet material of the CA to see whether there are some technical studies that deal with the various alternative systems that are available to choose from.

The CA has added a couple of criteria to 8 elements proposed by the government when it establilshed the CA process. These are that any new system should be simple and practical. as a practicing politician for many years (and as a citizen) I strongly endorse these principles being included. Some of the proposals put forward last night were mind boggling in their complexity, with far too little effort to determine how they might work in practice.

I'll conclude by noting what I believe is one major omission from the list of guiding principles for electoral reform developed by the government and the CA. I'd describe it like this:

Effective Representation

There should continue to be a strong link between citizens and their MPPs to ensure that MPPs reflect the concerns and interests of their community or region and are accessible to people in their community or region.

This statement needs some work, but the risk of a mixed PR system with a high proportion of MPPs from party lists is that the locally elected MPPs will have to handle most of the local meetings and case work while the list mPPs flit around doing policy or hanging out at Queen's Park.

A mixed system with 80% of MPPs elected locally would be OK under this criterion, one with only50% elected locally would not.

In a moderate system as I proposed, with 5 MPPs per district, the local link would be preserved because most electors wouold have at least one mPP of their preferred political party within their district, whereas under FPTP the majority of Ontario citizens did not support the MPP who represents them at Queen's Park. (It's true, check out the number of ridings where the winning candidate got less than a majority of the votes).

I will be presenting a brief to the CA before Jan. 31 that takes these ideas a bit further. Welcome comments at mkcassidy@sympatico.ca

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